Current Rate and Recent Decisions
| Date | Decision | Policy Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 12, 2025 | Cut | 2.75% | -0.25% |
| January 29, 2025 | Cut | 3.00% | -0.25% |
| December 11, 2024 | Cut | 3.25% | -0.50% |
| October 23, 2024 | Cut | 3.75% | -0.50% |
| September 4, 2024 | Cut | 4.25% | -0.25% |
| July 24, 2024 | Cut | 4.50% | -0.25% |
| June 5, 2024 | Cut | 4.75% | -0.25% |
| April 10, 2024 | Hold | 5.00% | 0% |
| March 6, 2024 | Hold | 5.00% | 0% |
| January 24, 2024 | Hold | 5.00% | 0% |
2026 Scheduled Rate Announcements
| Date | Announcement |
|---|---|
| January 29, 2026 | TBD |
| March 12, 2026 | TBD |
| April 16, 2026 | TBD |
| June 4, 2026 | TBD |
| July 30, 2026 | TBD |
| September 17, 2026 | TBD |
| October 28, 2026 | TBD |
| December 10, 2026 | TBD |
Historical Rate Timeline (2015-2025)
| Year | Start Rate | End Rate | Direction | Key Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.00% | 0.50% | 2 cuts | Oil price crash |
| 2016 | 0.50% | 0.50% | No change | Steady recovery |
| 2017 | 0.50% | 1.00% | 2 hikes | Growth returned |
| 2018 | 1.00% | 1.75% | 3 hikes | Strong economy |
| 2019 | 1.75% | 1.75% | No change | Trade uncertainty |
| 2020 | 1.75% | 0.25% | 3 emergency cuts | COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2021 | 0.25% | 0.25% | No change | Recovery, inflation rising |
| 2022 | 0.25% | 4.25% | 7 hikes | Aggressive inflation fight |
| 2023 | 4.25% | 5.00% | 2 hikes | Rate peaked at 5.00% |
| 2024 | 5.00% | 3.25% | 5 cuts | Inflation cooling |
| 2025 | 3.25% | 2.75%* | 2 cuts (to March) | Rates normalizing |
Historical Rate Milestones
| Period | Rate Range | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 1980-1981 | 17-21% | Highest rates ever β inflation crisis |
| 1990-1991 | 11-14% | Recession |
| 1996-2000 | 3-5.5% | Goldilocks period |
| 2001-2002 | 2-4.5% | Dot-com bust, 9/11 |
| 2009-2010 | 0.25-1.00% | Global financial crisis |
| 2015-2017 | 0.50-1.00% | Oil crash, slow recovery |
| 2020-2022 | 0.25% | COVID-19 emergency low |
| 2022-2023 | 0.25-5.00% | Fastest tightening in history |
| 2024-2025 | 5.00-2.75% | Easing cycle |
How Rate Changes Affect You
Borrowers (Rates Go Up = You Pay More)
| Product | Rate Tied To | Impact of 0.25% Hike |
|---|---|---|
| Variable rate mortgage ($500K) | Prime rate | +$72/month |
| HELOC ($100K balance) | Prime rate | +$21/month |
| Variable personal loan ($20K) | Prime rate | +$4/month |
| Fixed mortgage (new) | Bond yields | Indirect, usually follows |
| Credit card | Usually fixed | Minimal change |
Savers (Rates Go Up = You Earn More)
| Product | Rate Tied To | Impact of 0.25% Hike |
|---|---|---|
| HISA ($50K balance) | Bank policy | +$125/year potential |
| 1-year GIC ($50K) | BoC rate + spread | +$100-$125/year potential |
| TFSA savings ($50K) | Bank policy | +$125/year potential |
| Money market funds | Short-term rates | +0.20-0.25% yield increase |
Key Relationships
| Rate Change | Prime Rate | Variable Mortgage | HISA Rate | GIC Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoC cuts 0.25% | Drops 0.25% | Decreases ~0.25% | Decreases ~0.10-0.25% | Decreases ~0.15-0.25% |
| BoC hikes 0.25% | Rises 0.25% | Increases ~0.25% | Increases ~0.10-0.25% | Increases ~0.15-0.25% |
Prime Rate History
| Date | BoC Policy Rate | Major Bank Prime Rate |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 2.75% | 4.95% |
| January 2025 | 3.00% | 5.20% |
| December 2024 | 3.25% | 5.45% |
| October 2024 | 3.75% | 5.95% |
| September 2024 | 4.25% | 6.45% |
| July 2024 | 4.50% | 6.70% |
| June 2024 | 4.75% | 6.95% |
| July 2023 | 5.00% | 7.20% |
| June 2023 | 4.75% | 6.95% |
| January 2023 | 4.50% | 6.70% |
| December 2022 | 4.25% | 6.45% |
Formula: Prime rate = BoC policy rate + 2.20% (this spread holds almost always)
How Rate Decisions Are Made
| Factor | What BoC Watches |
|---|---|
| CPI Inflation | Target: 2% (1-3% control range) |
| Core inflation (CPI-trim, CPI-median) | Strips out volatile items |
| GDP growth | Economic output and trends |
| Employment | Unemployment rate, job creation |
| Housing market | Prices, sales, construction |
| Consumer spending | Retail sales, household debt |
| Global factors | US Federal Reserve, oil prices, trade |
| CAD exchange rate | Impact on imports/exports |
BoC Rate vs US Federal Reserve
| Date | BoC Policy Rate | US Fed Funds Rate | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 2.75% | 4.25-4.50% | -1.50% |
| December 2024 | 3.25% | 4.25-4.50% | -1.00% |
| June 2024 | 4.75% | 5.25-5.50% | -0.50% |
| July 2023 | 5.00% | 5.25-5.50% | -0.25% |
| March 2022 | 0.50% | 0.25-0.50% | +0.00% |
| March 2020 | 0.25% | 0.00-0.25% | +0.00% |
If Canada’s rate is much lower than the US rate, it can put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, making imports more expensive.
What Analysts Expect
These are general market expectations and not investment advice. Actual decisions depend on economic data.
| Factor | Direction |
|---|---|
| Inflation trend | Moving toward 2% target |
| Economic growth | Slowing but positive |
| Housing market | Sensitive to rate changes |
| General expectation | Gradual further easing possible |
| Neutral rate estimate | 2.25-3.25% |