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Bank of Canada Interest Rate History 2026 | Historical Rates Chart

Updated

Current Rate and Recent Decisions

DateDecisionPolicy RateChange
March 12, 2025Cut2.75%-0.25%
January 29, 2025Cut3.00%-0.25%
December 11, 2024Cut3.25%-0.50%
October 23, 2024Cut3.75%-0.50%
September 4, 2024Cut4.25%-0.25%
July 24, 2024Cut4.50%-0.25%
June 5, 2024Cut4.75%-0.25%
April 10, 2024Hold5.00%0%
March 6, 2024Hold5.00%0%
January 24, 2024Hold5.00%0%

2026 Scheduled Rate Announcements

DateAnnouncement
January 29, 2026TBD
March 12, 2026TBD
April 16, 2026TBD
June 4, 2026TBD
July 30, 2026TBD
September 17, 2026TBD
October 28, 2026TBD
December 10, 2026TBD

Historical Rate Timeline (2015-2025)

YearStart RateEnd RateDirectionKey Events
20151.00%0.50%2 cutsOil price crash
20160.50%0.50%No changeSteady recovery
20170.50%1.00%2 hikesGrowth returned
20181.00%1.75%3 hikesStrong economy
20191.75%1.75%No changeTrade uncertainty
20201.75%0.25%3 emergency cutsCOVID-19 pandemic
20210.25%0.25%No changeRecovery, inflation rising
20220.25%4.25%7 hikesAggressive inflation fight
20234.25%5.00%2 hikesRate peaked at 5.00%
20245.00%3.25%5 cutsInflation cooling
20253.25%2.75%*2 cuts (to March)Rates normalizing

Historical Rate Milestones

PeriodRate RangeContext
1980-198117-21%Highest rates ever β€” inflation crisis
1990-199111-14%Recession
1996-20003-5.5%Goldilocks period
2001-20022-4.5%Dot-com bust, 9/11
2009-20100.25-1.00%Global financial crisis
2015-20170.50-1.00%Oil crash, slow recovery
2020-20220.25%COVID-19 emergency low
2022-20230.25-5.00%Fastest tightening in history
2024-20255.00-2.75%Easing cycle

How Rate Changes Affect You

Borrowers (Rates Go Up = You Pay More)

ProductRate Tied ToImpact of 0.25% Hike
Variable rate mortgage ($500K)Prime rate+$72/month
HELOC ($100K balance)Prime rate+$21/month
Variable personal loan ($20K)Prime rate+$4/month
Fixed mortgage (new)Bond yieldsIndirect, usually follows
Credit cardUsually fixedMinimal change

Savers (Rates Go Up = You Earn More)

ProductRate Tied ToImpact of 0.25% Hike
HISA ($50K balance)Bank policy+$125/year potential
1-year GIC ($50K)BoC rate + spread+$100-$125/year potential
TFSA savings ($50K)Bank policy+$125/year potential
Money market fundsShort-term rates+0.20-0.25% yield increase

Key Relationships

Rate ChangePrime RateVariable MortgageHISA RateGIC Rate
BoC cuts 0.25%Drops 0.25%Decreases ~0.25%Decreases ~0.10-0.25%Decreases ~0.15-0.25%
BoC hikes 0.25%Rises 0.25%Increases ~0.25%Increases ~0.10-0.25%Increases ~0.15-0.25%

Prime Rate History

DateBoC Policy RateMajor Bank Prime Rate
March 20252.75%4.95%
January 20253.00%5.20%
December 20243.25%5.45%
October 20243.75%5.95%
September 20244.25%6.45%
July 20244.50%6.70%
June 20244.75%6.95%
July 20235.00%7.20%
June 20234.75%6.95%
January 20234.50%6.70%
December 20224.25%6.45%

Formula: Prime rate = BoC policy rate + 2.20% (this spread holds almost always)

How Rate Decisions Are Made

FactorWhat BoC Watches
CPI InflationTarget: 2% (1-3% control range)
Core inflation (CPI-trim, CPI-median)Strips out volatile items
GDP growthEconomic output and trends
EmploymentUnemployment rate, job creation
Housing marketPrices, sales, construction
Consumer spendingRetail sales, household debt
Global factorsUS Federal Reserve, oil prices, trade
CAD exchange rateImpact on imports/exports

BoC Rate vs US Federal Reserve

DateBoC Policy RateUS Fed Funds RateSpread
March 20252.75%4.25-4.50%-1.50%
December 20243.25%4.25-4.50%-1.00%
June 20244.75%5.25-5.50%-0.50%
July 20235.00%5.25-5.50%-0.25%
March 20220.50%0.25-0.50%+0.00%
March 20200.25%0.00-0.25%+0.00%

If Canada’s rate is much lower than the US rate, it can put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, making imports more expensive.

What Analysts Expect

These are general market expectations and not investment advice. Actual decisions depend on economic data.

FactorDirection
Inflation trendMoving toward 2% target
Economic growthSlowing but positive
Housing marketSensitive to rate changes
General expectationGradual further easing possible
Neutral rate estimate2.25-3.25%