Current Rate Metric Value Current target overnight rate 2.25% (effective October 29, 2025) Bank Rate 2.5% (effective October 29, 2025) Cycle peak (since 2009) 5% (reached July 12, 2023) Next scheduled announcement October 28, 2026
Source: Bank of Canada Valet API, series V39079 (target rate) and BR.CDN (Bank Rate), fetched 2026-09-03, as of September 2, 2026.
For the full 2026 announcement calendar, see the Bank of Canada rate announcement schedule .
Full Rate Change History (2009–Present) Date Decision Policy Rate Change April 21, 2009 Data begins 0.25% — June 1, 2010 Hike 0.5% +0.25% July 20, 2010 Hike 0.75% +0.25% September 8, 2010 Hike 1% +0.25% January 21, 2015 Cut 0.75% -0.25% July 15, 2015 Cut 0.5% -0.25% July 12, 2017 Hike 0.75% +0.25% September 6, 2017 Hike 1% +0.25% January 17, 2018 Hike 1.25% +0.25% July 11, 2018 Hike 1.5% +0.25% October 24, 2018 Hike 1.75% +0.25% March 4, 2020 Cut 1.25% -0.5% March 16, 2020 Cut 0.75% -0.5% March 27, 2020 Cut 0.25% -0.5% March 2, 2022 Hike 0.5% +0.25% April 13, 2022 Hike 1% +0.5% June 1, 2022 Hike 1.5% +0.5% July 13, 2022 Hike 2.5% +1% September 7, 2022 Hike 3.25% +0.75% October 26, 2022 Hike 3.75% +0.5% December 7, 2022 Hike 4.25% +0.5% January 25, 2023 Hike 4.5% +0.25% June 7, 2023 Hike 4.75% +0.25% July 12, 2023 Hike 5% +0.25% June 5, 2024 Cut 4.75% -0.25% July 24, 2024 Cut 4.5% -0.25% September 4, 2024 Cut 4.25% -0.25% October 23, 2024 Cut 3.75% -0.5% December 11, 2024 Cut 3.25% -0.5% January 29, 2025 Cut 3% -0.25% March 12, 2025 Cut 2.75% -0.25% September 17, 2025 Cut 2.5% -0.25% October 29, 2025 Cut 2.25% -0.25%
Source: Bank of Canada Valet API, series V39079 (“Target for the overnight rate”), fetched 2026-09-03. Valet API serves V39079 only from 2009-04-21 onward; earlier history is not pipeline-sourced.
Historical Rate Timeline (2015-2026) Year Start Rate End Rate Direction Key Events 2015 1.00% 0.50% 2 cuts Oil price crash 2016 0.50% 0.50% No change Steady recovery 2017 0.50% 1.00% 2 hikes Growth returned 2018 1.00% 1.75% 3 hikes Strong economy 2019 1.75% 1.75% No change Trade uncertainty 2020 1.75% 0.25% 3 emergency cuts COVID-19 pandemic 2021 0.25% 0.25% No change Recovery, inflation rising 2022 0.25% 4.25% 7 hikes Aggressive inflation fight 2023 4.25% 5.00% 3 hikes Rate peaked at 5.00% 2024 5.00% 3.25% 5 cuts Inflation cooling 2025 3.25% 2.25% 4 cuts Easing continued through October 2026 (to Sep) 2.25% 2.25% No change to date Held at every 2026 meeting amid energy-price and trade uncertainty
Historical Rate Milestones Period Rate Range Context 1980-1981 17-21% Highest rates ever — inflation crisis 1990-1991 11-14% Recession 1996-2000 3-5.5% Goldilocks period 2001-2002 2-4.5% Dot-com bust, 9/11 2009-2010 0.25-1.00% Global financial crisis 2015-2017 0.50-1.00% Oil crash, slow recovery 2020-2022 0.25% COVID-19 emergency low 2022-2023 0.25-5.00% Fastest tightening in history 2024-2026 5.00-2.25% Easing cycle, on hold since October 2025
How Rate Changes Affect You Borrowers (Rates Go Up = You Pay More) Product Rate Tied To Impact of 0.25% Hike Variable rate mortgage ($500K)Prime rate +$72/month HELOC ($100K balance)Prime rate +$21/month Variable personal loan ($20K) Prime rate +$4/month Fixed mortgage (new) Bond yields Indirect, usually follows Credit card Usually fixed Minimal change
Savers (Rates Go Up = You Earn More) Product Rate Tied To Impact of 0.25% Hike HISA ($50K balance)Bank policy +$125/year potential 1-year GIC ($50K) BoC rate + spread +$100-$125/year potential TFSA savings ($50K) Bank policy +$125/year potential Money market funds Short-term rates +0.20-0.25% yield increase
Key Relationships Rate Change Prime Rate Variable Mortgage HISA Rate GIC Rate BoC cuts 0.25% Drops 0.25% Decreases ~0.25% Decreases ~0.10-0.25% Decreases ~0.15-0.25% BoC hikes 0.25% Rises 0.25% Increases ~0.25% Increases ~0.10-0.25% Increases ~0.15-0.25%
Prime Rate History Effective Date Prime Rate Change October 29, 2025 4.45% -0.25% September 17, 2025 4.70% -0.25% March 12, 2025 4.95% -0.25% January 29, 2025 5.20% -0.25% December 11, 2024 5.45% -0.5% October 23, 2024 5.95% -0.5% September 4, 2024 6.45% -0.25% July 24, 2024 6.70% -0.25% June 5, 2024 6.95% -0.25% July 12, 2023 7.20% +0.25% June 7, 2023 6.95% +0.25% January 25, 2023 6.70% +0.25% December 7, 2022 6.45% +0.5% October 26, 2022 5.95% +0.5% September 7, 2022 5.45% +0.75% July 13, 2022 4.70% +1% June 1, 2022 3.70% +0.5% April 13, 2022 3.20% +0.5% March 2, 2022 2.70% +0.25% March 27, 2020 2.45% -0.5% March 16, 2020 2.95% -0.5% March 4, 2020 3.45% -0.5% October 24, 2018 3.95% +0.25% July 11, 2018 3.70% +0.25% January 17, 2018 3.45% +0.25% September 6, 2017 3.20% +0.25% July 12, 2017 2.95% +0.25% July 15, 2015 2.70% -0.25% January 21, 2015 2.95% -0.25% September 8, 2010 3.20% +0.25% July 20, 2010 2.95% +0.25% June 1, 2010 2.70% +0.25% April 21, 2009 2.45% —
Prime rate = Bank of Canada overnight rate + the industry-standard 2.2% spread, applied to each historical rate change. Overnight rate history: Bank of Canada Valet API, series V39079, fetched 2026-09-03.
Formula: Prime rate = BoC policy rate + 2.20% (this spread holds almost always)
How Rate Decisions Are Made Factor What BoC Watches CPI Inflation Target: 2% (1-3% control range) Core inflation (CPI-trim, CPI-median) Strips out volatile items GDP growth Economic output and trends Employment Unemployment rate, job creation Housing market Prices, sales, construction Consumer spending Retail sales, household debt Global factors US Federal Reserve, oil prices, trade CAD exchange rate Impact on imports/exports
BoC Rate vs US Federal Reserve Date BoC Policy Rate US Fed Funds Rate Spread March 2025 2.75% 4.25-4.50% -1.50% December 2024 3.25% 4.25-4.50% -1.00% June 2024 4.75% 5.25-5.50% -0.50% July 2023 5.00% 5.25-5.50% -0.25% March 2022 0.50% 0.25-0.50% +0.25% March 2020 0.25% 0.00-0.25% +0.25%
Spread is calculated as the BoC policy rate minus the lower bound of the Fed’s target range, using end-of-month rate levels.
If Canada’s rate is much lower than the US rate , it can put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, making imports more expensive.
What Analysts Expect These are general market expectations and not investment advice. Actual decisions depend on economic data.
Factor Direction Inflation trend Moving toward 2% target Economic growth Slowing but positive Housing market Sensitive to rate changes General expectation Gradual further easing possible Neutral rate estimate 2.25-3.25%
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