The Canada 10-year government bond yield is a key benchmark in Canadian financial markets. It reflects where investors expect interest rates, inflation, and economic growth to be over the next decade. Unlike the 5-year bond yield (the main benchmark for 5-year fixed mortgage rates), the 10-year yield is a broader signal about the economy and affects long-term borrowing across the board. To hold Government of Canada bonds through a fund instead, see the bond ETF comparison and the wider ETF guide.
Current 10-Year Bond Yield
The Bank of Canada publishes the 10-year benchmark yield’s daily close on its Canadian bond yields page. Because it reflects expectations for growth and inflation over a decade, it moves more with global bond markets than with the Bank of Canada’s own rate decisions. The latest close in this site’s data, for 2026-09-24, was 3.97%. So far this year it has ranged from 3.13% to 3.97%.
What the 10-Year Bond Yield Affects
| Area | How the 10-Year Yield Impacts It |
|---|---|
| Long-term mortgages (7–10 year terms) | Directly: lenders price off this yield |
| Bond ETF prices | Inversely: higher yields mean lower bond prices |
| Corporate bonds | Higher benchmark pushes up corporate borrowing costs |
| Stock market valuations | Higher yields reduce the present value of future earnings |
| Dividend stocks | Compete with bonds for income investors |
| Real estate | Higher long-term rates increase cap rates and reduce property values |
| Government debt servicing | Higher yields make government borrowing more expensive |
| Pension funds | Higher yields lower the present value of promised pensions, which tends to improve funded status |
Historical 10-Year Bond Yield
| Period | 10-year yield, low to high | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 4.81% to 5.99% | Before the 2008 financial crisis |
| 2008 (financial crisis) | 2.62% to 3.94% | Flight to safety |
| 2010 to 2019 | 0.95% to 3.72% | Low-rate era |
| 2020 (COVID) | 0.43% to 1.62% | Pandemic lows |
| 2021 | 0.68% to 1.81% | Recovery begins |
| 2022 | 1.59% to 3.66% | Rapid rate hikes |
| 2023 | 2.70% to 4.26% | Peak policy rates |
| 2024 | 2.86% to 3.85% | Rate cuts begin |
| 2025 | 2.81% to 3.60% | Further cuts |
| 2026 year to date | 3.13% to 3.97% | Through the latest close above |
Ranges are the lowest and highest daily closes in each period, from the Bank of Canada’s benchmark bond yield series, which starts in January 2001.
The 2001 to 2007 average was 4.67% and the 2010 to 2019 average was 2.08%. The low-yield decade after the financial crisis, and the 2020 to 2021 lows, came with quantitative easing and near-zero policy rates.
The Yield Curve
The yield curve shows the relationship between short-term and long-term bond yields:
| Shape | What It Means | Current? |
|---|---|---|
| Normal (upward sloping) | Long-term yields higher than short-term: healthy economy expected | Typical |
| Flat | Short and long yields nearly equal: uncertainty | Transitional |
| Inverted | Short-term yields higher than long-term: recession signal | Watched closely |
| Steepening | Long-term yields rising faster: growth expectations improving | Can signal inflation |
Key Spread: 10-Year Minus 2-Year
| Spread | How it is commonly read |
|---|---|
| Clearly positive | Normal curve: markets expect steady growth |
| Near zero | Flat curve: uncertainty about growth |
| Negative (inverted) | Often read as a recession warning |
Using the latest closes in this site’s data, the 10-year minus 2-year spread is 0.58 percentage points.
An inverted yield curve (where the 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year) is widely watched as a recession signal. It doesn’t cause recessions; it reflects a market expectation that the Bank of Canada will cut rates in the future. It is not a perfect signal: a former Bank of Canada governor joked that the curve “has inverted before 10 of the last 6 Canadian recessions.” In 2023 the 2-year yield ranged from 3.42% to 4.97%, against 2.70% to 4.26% for the 10-year. The latest closes are 3.39% for the 2-year and 3.97% for the 10-year.
What Moves the 10-Year Yield
| Factor | Effect |
|---|---|
| Inflation expectations rise | Yield rises |
| Inflation expectations fall | Yield falls |
| Bank of Canada rate hikes | Short-term yields rise; 10-year may lag |
| Economic growth improving | Yield rises |
| Recession fears | Yield falls (flight to safety) |
| US 10-year Treasury yield rising | Canadian 10-year follows |
| Global risk-off events | Yield falls (demand for safe bonds increases) |
| Government deficit spending | More bond issuance can push yields higher |
| Quantitative easing (QE) | Yield falls (Bank of Canada buys bonds) |
| Quantitative tightening (QT) | Yield rises (Bank of Canada stops buying/sells bonds) |
US Treasury yields are a major driver of Canadian yields. The Bank of Canada has noted that Canadian 5-year yields have traditionally imported about two-thirds of any movement in US 5-year yields.
10-Year Yield and Your Investments
Bond ETFs
When the 10-year yield rises, bond ETF prices fall, and vice versa. A fund’s duration (in years) is a rough guide to the size of the move: for a 1 percentage point rise in yields, the price falls by about the duration in percent.
| Bond ETF duration (example) | Approximate price change for a 1 point yield increase |
|---|---|
| 3 years (short-term fund) | About -3% |
| 7 years (broad aggregate fund) | About -7% |
| 15 years (long-term fund) | About -15% |
For example, BMO’s aggregate bond ETF (ZAG) reported a duration of 6.69 years as of August 31, 2026. The rule is an approximation and ignores the extra income earned at the higher yield.
If you hold bonds to maturity (either individual bonds or a bond ladder), short-term price changes don’t matter. If you own a bond ETF, higher yields mean short-term losses but better future returns as the ETF reinvests at higher rates.
Stocks
| Stock Type | Impact of Rising 10-Year Yield |
|---|---|
| Growth stocks (tech) | Negative: future earnings worth less today |
| Dividend stocks | Negative: bonds become more competitive for income |
| Bank stocks | Mixed: a steeper curve can widen lending margins |
| Value stocks | Generally neutral to positive |
| REITs | Negative: higher borrowing costs + competing yields |
Real Estate
Higher 10-year yields increase long-term borrowing costs, which can:
- Push mortgage rates higher (especially 7 and 10-year terms)
- Reduce property valuations (higher cap rates)
- Slow housing market activity
Canada vs US 10-Year Yield Spread
The spread between Canadian and US 10-year yields is commonly read as a gauge of relative outlooks:
| Spread (Canada minus US) | How it is commonly read |
|---|---|
| Negative (Canada lower) | Markets see Canada as slower-growing or cutting rates faster |
| Near zero | Similar outlook |
| Positive (Canada higher) | Markets see Canada as stronger or with higher inflation |
This spread also affects the Canadian dollar. A widening negative spread (US yields moving higher relative to Canada) tends to weigh on the Canadian dollar, as higher US yields attract capital.
Where to Track the 10-Year Yield
The Bank of Canada posts the official daily close for the 10-year benchmark bond. For intraday moves and the gap to the US 10-year Treasury, financial data terminals and market news sites quote both.
Related Resources
Sources
The figures and rules on this page come from these sources, last checked against them on September 25, 2026. How we check facts.
- Bank of Canada: Government of Canada benchmark bond yield, 10-year (data series)
- BMO Global Asset Management: ZAG - Factsheet