Housing Starts in Canada | 2026 Data & Trends

Canada housing starts: February 2026

Canadian housing starts rose to 250,900 annualized units (SAAR) in February 2026, up 4.5% month-over-month from January’s revised 240,148. The six-month moving average was essentially flat, edging up 0.4% to 256,005 units.

Actual housing starts in urban centres (population 10,000+) totalled 15,886 units in February, up 10% year-over-year from 14,420 in February 2025. The year-to-date total of 31,974 units was up 5% from the same period last year, driven by higher starts in British Columbia and Ontario.

“In February, the six-month trend in housing starts was essentially flat, indicating that the trend in new construction activity remains relatively steady despite ongoing monthly volatility,” said Kevin Hughes, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist. “Looking ahead, we expect heightened levels of business uncertainty and construction costs to weigh on the rate and trend of housing starts in the near-to-medium term.”

Housing starts by province

Provincial housing starts data (trailing 12 months ending February 2026):

On a trailing 12-month basis, starts were flat or slightly lower in 6 of 10 provinces. New Brunswick (-7%) and PEI (-13%) saw the steepest declines. Ontario (+2%) and Quebec (+3%) posted modest gains.

The actual February monthly data tells a more dynamic story. British Columbia surged 51% year-over-year in actual February starts, led by higher multi-unit construction. Ontario was up 17%, Manitoba 105%, and New Brunswick 50% in actual monthly starts. Meanwhile, Alberta dropped 21% and Nova Scotia fell 27% from the prior February.

Ontario’s housing starts challenge

Ontario’s annualized housing starts were 67,274 units as of February 2026, up modestly from 65,757 the prior year (+2%). While actual February starts posted a 17% year-over-year gain province-wide, the overall trend remains well below Ontario’s 2021 peak pace of roughly 100,000 units. Factors weighing on Ontario starts:

• Weak pre-construction condo demand continues to discourage developers from launching new projects
• Large pipeline of completions still adding to unsold inventory across the GTA
• Population outflows as Ontarians migrate to Alberta and other more affordable provinces
• Toronto specifically declined 28% in actual February starts year-over-year, even as the broader province saw some gains elsewhere

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic has noted that Ontario starts running below Alberta’s on a per-capita basis remains a historically unusual situation given Ontario’s population advantage.

Alberta’s strength moderating

Alberta’s annualized starts were 48,438 units as of February 2026, essentially flat year-over-year (-1%). While no longer accelerating, Alberta remains one of Canada’s strongest construction markets relative to population. Actual February starts dipped 21% compared to a strong February 2025, but the trailing trend remains elevated. Key drivers:

• Continued interprovincial migration from Ontario and other expensive provinces
• Relative affordability with average prices roughly 30% below Ontario’s
• Edmonton holding steady at 18,772 annualized starts — essentially flat year-over-year
• Calgary moderated at 24,941 annualized starts, down 5% from the trailing prior year

Housing starts by city (CMA)

CMHC reports housing starts for Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). The following table shows annualized starts (trailing 12 months ending February 2026) for Canada’s largest urban centres:

CMHC highlighted actual February monthly changes for Canada’s three largest cities: Vancouver posted a 60% year-over-year increase in actual starts driven by higher multi-unit and single-detached construction. Montréal recorded an 18% increase on similar strength. Toronto starts declined 28% due to lower activity in both multi-unit and single-detached segments.

Notable trends on the trailing 12-month basis:

• Ottawa–Gatineau posted the strongest annualized gain among major CMAs (+17%), with multi-unit starts surging 20%
• Hamilton recovered sharply (+21%) after a weak 2024, with multi-unit starts rebounding 26%
• Victoria recorded the steepest decline (-20%), with multi-unit starts falling 21%
• The top four CMAs — Vancouver, Montréal, Toronto, and Calgary — each recorded between 25,000 and 28,000 annualized starts, together accounting for the bulk of national urban construction

What types of homes are being built?

Housing construction in Canada is dominated by multi-family units (apartments and condos), which accounted for approximately 87% of urban starts in February 2026.

Units under construction (November 2025)

As of November 2025, there were 356,000 residential units under construction across Canada:

The heavy concentration in apartments reflects the economics of urban land — high land costs make multi-family projects the only financially viable option in most major cities.

Housing completions

During 2023 (the latest full-year data available), 188,689 residential units were completed across Canada:

Note: CMHC has stopped reporting Canada-wide housing completion data on a monthly basis. The figures above are based on the last complete annual report.

Housing construction investment

Total investment in residential construction reached $185.70 billion over the twelve months ending October 2025, representing 8.3% annual growth. Non-residential construction investment totaled $81.37 billion over the same period, up 3.2%.

These investment figures remain elevated despite the decline in starts, reflecting higher per-unit costs driven by:

• Rising material costs (lumber, steel, concrete)
• Trade tariffs on U.S. imports (steel, aluminum, glass, appliances)
• Labour shortages in the construction sector
• Municipal development charges and fees

Housing starts trend: 2000–2026

Canadian housing starts have gone through distinct cycles over the past quarter-century, shaped by interest rate environments, immigration policy, commodity booms, and financial crises. The long-run data reveals that current levels — while below recent peaks — are roughly in line with the 2010s average.

Several patterns stand out in the long-run data:

• The 2009 trough (149,000 starts) remains the lowest point this century — Ontario’s current trajectory is approaching those recession-era levels on a provincial basis
• The 2002–2007 boom saw starts climb from 152,000 to 228,000, driven by easy credit and strong immigration
• The 2021 spike (271,000) was the highest annual total in over two decades, fuelled by rock-bottom interest rates and pandemic-era demand for housing
• The post-2021 decline has been gradual but persistent, with starts falling ~12% from 2021’s peak to current levels
• The 25-year average is approximately 210,000 starts per year — well below the ~550,000/year pace the federal government says is needed to hit its 3.87 million homes by 2031 target (announced in 2024)

Monthly housing starts trend

While annual data shows the big picture, the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) captures the volatility and turning points that news articles report on. The chart below shows the monthly SAAR from March 2024 through February 2026.

The monthly data reveals just how volatile housing starts are — swings of 10–15% from month to month are common, which is why economists focus on the six-month moving average (currently 256,005) rather than any single month’s reading. February’s 4.5% rebound partially reversed January’s weather-driven drop. The broader pattern since mid-2025 shows starts oscillating in the 237,000–280,000 range without a clear directional trend.

2026 housing starts outlook

CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist has warned that “heightened levels of business uncertainty and construction costs” are expected to weigh on housing starts in the near-to-medium term. Several factors will shape activity for the remainder of 2026:

Headwinds

• Trade tariffs: Retaliatory tariffs on building materials (steel, aluminum, glass, appliances) are estimated to add $30,000–$50,000 to the cost of a new build, making many projects financially unviable
• Business uncertainty: Ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty are causing developers to delay new project launches
• Weak pre-construction sales: Developers in the GTA report very slow demand for new condo projects
• Rising vacancy rates: Higher vacancy rates in several markets reduce incentive to build rental units
• Slow population growth: Reduced immigration targets mean less demand growth than 2022–2024 levels

Tailwinds

• Government incentives: Federal and provincial programs aimed at boosting housing supply, including the removal of GST on new rental construction
• Alberta and BC migration: Continued interprovincial flows support construction, with BC actual starts surging 51% year-over-year in February
• Pent-up supply deficit: Canada’s structural housing shortage means there is long-term demand for more units
• Rate stability: While not stimulative, stable interest rates provide certainty for project planning

The six-month trend at 256,005 has been essentially flat in recent months, suggesting the housing starts trajectory is neither strengthening nor deteriorating — but the balance of risks tilts to the downside given tariff uncertainty and persistent weakness in Toronto’s pre-construction market.

The housing supply gap

Canada’s housing supply remains well below estimated requirements. The federal government has targeted 3.87 million new homes by 2031 to restore affordability, which would require a sustained pace of roughly 550,000 starts per year — more than double the current rate.

At the current ~250,000 starts per year, Canada is falling increasingly further behind this target. The supply gap is most acute in Ontario and British Columbia, where population growth has outpaced construction for years.

Glossary

• Housing start: A start is counted when construction begins on the foundation of a new residential building
• SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — the monthly figure scaled to an annual rate, adjusted for seasonal patterns
• Urban area: Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs) with populations of 10,000 or more
• Multi-unit starts: Includes apartments, condominiums, row houses, and semi-detached homes in urban areas
• Single-detached starts: Stand-alone single-family homes in urban areas
• Housing completions: When a residential unit is completed and ready for occupancy
• Units under construction: Residential units where construction has started but is not yet complete
• Trend: A six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), used to smooth out month-to-month volatility

Related calculators

• Mortgage Calculator — calculate monthly payments on a new home
• Mortgage Affordability Calculator — find out how much home you can afford
• Land Transfer Tax Calculator — estimate closing costs when purchasing a new build
• Mortgage Down Payment Calculator — determine your minimum down payment

Data sources

• Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) — monthly housing starts, completions, and under-construction data
• Statistics Canada, Table 34-10-0135-01 — quarterly housing starts, under construction, and completions data
• TD Economics — Canadian Housing Starts — analysis and commentary on monthly CMHC releases
• Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) — resale market data and MLS statistics