Currency risk is real — but for most long-term Canadian investors, the cost of eliminating it exceeds the cost of accepting it.
What you are exposed to with an unhedged US ETF
When you hold VFV (or any unhedged US equity ETF) in a Canadian account, your stated CAD value = USD value of US stocks × CAD/USD rate. Both inputs vary. On a given day:
- US stocks up 1%, CAD stable → your account is up 1%
- US stocks up 1%, CAD strengthens 1% → your account is roughly flat
- US stocks flat, CAD weakens 2% → your account is up 2%
Over time, both effects average out, but year-to-year volatility is higher with an unhedged position.
Cost summary: hedged vs unhedged
| Factor | Unhedged (VFV) | CAD-hedged (VSP) |
|---|---|---|
| MER (2026 approximate) | 0.09% | 0.09% |
| Carry/roll cost of hedge | None | ~0.10–0.30%/yr |
| Tracking difference vs benchmark | Lower | Higher (hedge drag) |
| CAD/USD exposure | Full | Eliminated |
| Best for | Long-term accumulators | Near-term withdrawals |
Hedged ETF annualized drag (estimated, rolling 10-year periods)
| Scenario | Unhedged total return | Hedged total return | Estimated drag |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD appreciates (USD stronger) | Higher | Lower | -0.5% to -1.5%/yr vs unhedged |
| USD depreciates (CAD stronger) | Lower | Higher | +0.5% to +1.0%/yr vs unhedged |
| USD/CAD flat (rare) | Equal | Hedge cost | ~-0.10 to -0.30%/yr |
Natural hedge rationale
Canadian investors holding domestic equities (TSX) already have implicit commodity/CAD exposure. Adding unhedged US equities creates a natural offset: when oil falls (TSX down, CAD down), unhedged US equity values rise in CAD terms. This correlation structure reduces overall portfolio volatility compared to a fully hedged international allocation.
Decision summary
| Investor situation | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Accumulating, 20+ year horizon | Unhedged (VFV, XUS, ZSP) |
| 5–10 years to retirement | Consider partial hedge or mix |
| Within 5 years of retirement | Hedging worth evaluating |
| Scheduled large withdrawal within 2 years | Consider hedging that specific slice |
| Highly sensitive to CAD value swings | Hedging may improve behaviour |