A falling investment account balance is alarming but almost always normal. Here is how to think through what happened and what — if anything — to do.
Quick diagnosis
| What you see | Likely cause | Action needed? |
|---|---|---|
| All holdings down similarly | Broad market decline (normal) | Usually no action required |
| One holding down significantly, others okay | Company-specific issue | Investigate the holding |
| Account down but you made a withdrawal | Your own activity | None |
| GIC shows lower market value | Interest rate rise (mark-to-market) | None — hold to maturity |
| Account was positive, now shows negative | Likely margin account or covered short | Contact your broker immediately |
| Unknown transaction showing outflow | Unauthorized or mistaken transaction | Contact broker immediately |
Historical context: Canadian market recoveries
| Decline event | Peak-to-trough decline | Time to full recovery |
|---|---|---|
| Dot-com crash 2000–2002 | ~50% (tech-heavy) | ~5–7 years |
| 2008–09 financial crisis | ~49% (S&P 500) | ~5 years |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | ~34% (S&P 500) | ~6 months |
| 2022 rate-rise bear market | ~25% (global equities) | ~18 months |
Every one of these was followed by a full recovery for a diversified investor who stayed invested.
Unrealized vs. realized losses in registered accounts
| Account type | Selling at a loss locks in | Tax consequence of sale |
|---|---|---|
| TFSA | Loss permanently — contribution room NOT restored until Jan 1 | No capital loss available (TFSA gains/losses are tax-sheltered) |
| RRSP | Loss permanently — contribution room not restored | No capital loss available (RRSP gains/losses are tax-sheltered) |
| Non-registered | Loss realized — capital loss can offset capital gains | Capital loss is reportable and valuable |
In a TFSA: If you bought $10,000 of stock and it dropped to $6,000 and you sell, your TFSA contribution room only recovers $6,000 next January — you permanently lost $4,000 of TFSA room. Selling at a loss inside a TFSA costs you twice.
What volatility-tolerant looks like in practice
If your portfolio dropped 20% and you have 20+ years to retirement:
- You are experiencing a completely expected event
- The right response is to continue your regular contributions
- Dollar-cost averaging means your new contributions buy more units at lower prices
- Historically, the Canadian and global equity markets recover and reach new highs
If your portfolio dropped 20% and you retire in 3 years:
- This warrants a conversation with a financial planner
- Consider gradually de-risking toward more GICs and bonds
- CPP and OAS income forms a non-market floor — factor it into your income picture