Canada housing starts: January 2026
Canadian housing starts fell to 238,100 annualized units (SAAR) in January 2026, down 15% month-over-month from December’s 280,000. The six-month moving average declined 3.5% to 254,800 units, extending the downward trend that began in late 2025.
January’s decline was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban multi-unit starts falling 23% month-over-month. Urban single-detached starts bucked the trend, rising 4% to 41,200 annualized units.
| Metric | January 2026 | December 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total starts (SAAR) | 238,100 | 280,000 | -15.0% |
| Urban single-detached | 41,200 | 39,600 | +4.0% |
| Urban multi-unit | 177,000 | 229,800 | -23.0% |
| 6-month trend | 254,800 | 264,000 | -3.5% |
Winter storms in Central and Atlantic Canada likely depressed January figures, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. TD Economics noted a bounce-back in February was likely given the weather factor and December’s increase in building permits.
Housing starts by province
Provincial housing starts data for January 2026 (annualized units):
| Province | Jan 2026 (SAAR) | Change from Dec 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | 63,200 | -30,700 | Lowest since 2009 |
| British Columbia | 51,400 | +5,100 | Recovering |
| Alberta | 44,800 | +3,800 | Near record highs |
| Quebec | 39,400 | -21,700 | Weather-impacted |
| Nova Scotia | 4,900 | -5,600 | Sharp decline |
| Manitoba | 3,600 | -100 | Stable |
| Saskatchewan | 3,200 | -2,200 | Declining |
Starts were down in 5 of 10 provinces. Ontario and Quebec accounted for the bulk of the national decline, largely attributed to severe winter storms.
Ontario’s collapse to 2009 levels
Ontario’s housing starts have fallen dramatically, reaching just 63,200 annualized units in January 2026 — matching levels last seen during the depths of the 2009 recession. This collapse has been building since Ontario starts peaked in 2022 and is driven by:
- Vanishing condo investors who had previously fuelled the pre-construction market
- A large pipeline of completions still working through the system, adding to unsold inventory
- Weak pre-construction sales, discouraging developers from launching new projects
- Population outflows as Ontarians migrate to Alberta and other more affordable provinces
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic noted that Ontario starts running below Alberta’s — as they did in March 2025 — is “extremely rare given that Ontario has more than 3x the population.”
Alberta’s near-record strength
In contrast to Ontario, Alberta is near record-high housing starts, driven by:
- Strong interprovincial migration from Ontario and other expensive provinces
- Less froth in Alberta’s market compared to Ontario and BC
- Relative affordability with average prices around $513,000 vs. Ontario’s $778,000
- Lower impact from non-permanent resident caps, according to BMO research
Alberta’s starts rose to 44,800 annualized units in January 2026, maintaining its position as one of Canada’s strongest construction markets.
What types of homes are being built?
Housing construction in Canada is dominated by multi-family units (apartments and condos), which accounted for approximately 81% of urban starts in January 2026.
Units under construction (November 2025)
As of November 2025, there were 356,000 residential units under construction across Canada:
| Property Type | Units Under Construction | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 298,000 | 83.7% |
| Detached homes | 29,000 | 8.1% |
| Row houses | 22,000 | 6.2% |
| Semi-detached | 7,000 | 2.0% |
| Total | 356,000 | 100% |
The heavy concentration in apartments reflects the economics of urban land — high land costs make multi-family projects the only financially viable option in most major cities.
Housing completions
During 2023 (the latest full-year data available), 188,689 residential units were completed across Canada:
| Property Type | Completions (2023) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 113,000 | 59.9% |
| Detached homes | 44,000 | 23.3% |
| Row homes | 24,000 | 12.7% |
| Semi-detached | 8,000 | 4.2% |
| Total | 188,689 | 100% |
Note: CMHC has stopped reporting Canada-wide housing completion data on a monthly basis. The figures above are based on the last complete annual report.
Housing construction investment
Total investment in residential construction reached $185.70 billion over the twelve months ending October 2025, representing 8.3% annual growth. Non-residential construction investment totaled $81.37 billion over the same period, up 3.2%.
These investment figures remain elevated despite the decline in starts, reflecting higher per-unit costs driven by:
- Rising material costs (lumber, steel, concrete)
- Trade tariffs on U.S. imports (steel, aluminum, glass, appliances)
- Labour shortages in the construction sector
- Municipal development charges and fees
Housing starts trend: 2020–2026
Canada’s housing starts have followed a boom-and-bust pattern over the past several years:
| Year | Annual Starts (approx.) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 217,000 | COVID-19 disruption, then recovery |
| 2021 | 271,000 | Record-low rates fuel building boom |
| 2022 | 262,000 | Rate hikes begin, starts peak in some provinces |
| 2023 | 240,000 | Higher rates slow construction |
| 2024 | 244,000 | Stabilization, inventory builds |
| 2025 | ~250,000 | Gradually declining trend |
| 2026 (Jan. SAAR) | 238,100 | Continued softening |
The trend is clear: housing starts are grinding lower as high interest rates, trade uncertainty, and weak demand in key markets (particularly Ontario) outweigh strong activity in Alberta and select other provinces.
2026 housing starts outlook
Several factors will shape housing starts for the remainder of 2026:
Headwinds
- Trade tariffs: Retaliatory tariffs on building materials (steel, aluminum, glass, appliances) are estimated to add $30,000–$50,000 to the cost of a new build, making many projects financially unviable
- Weak pre-construction sales: Developers in the GTA report very slow demand for new condo projects
- Rising vacancy rates: Higher vacancy rates in several markets, especially Calgary (5%), reduce incentive to build rental units
- Slow population growth: Reduced immigration targets mean less demand growth than 2022–2024 levels
Tailwinds
- Government incentives: Federal and provincial programs aimed at boosting housing supply, including the removal of GST on new rental construction
- Alberta migration: Continued interprovincial flows support construction in Alberta and parts of Atlantic Canada
- Pent-up supply deficit: Canada’s structural housing shortage means there is long-term demand for more units
- Rate stability: While not stimulative, stable interest rates provide certainty for project planning
TD Economics expects housing starts to decline moving forward, citing higher vacancy rates, weak pre-construction activity in the GTA, and very slow population growth. However, a near-term bounce-back from January’s weather-affected lows is expected.
The housing supply gap
Canada’s housing supply remains well below estimated requirements. The federal government has targeted 3.87 million new homes by 2031 to restore affordability, which would require a sustained pace of roughly 550,000 starts per year — more than double the current rate.
At the current ~250,000 starts per year, Canada is falling increasingly further behind this target. The supply gap is most acute in Ontario and British Columbia, where population growth has outpaced construction for years.
| Metric | Current | Target | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing starts (annualized) | ~250,000/yr | ~550,000/yr | -300,000/yr |
| Units under construction | 356,000 | Higher needed | Insufficient pipeline |
| Completions (2023) | 188,689 | ~550,000/yr | Major shortfall |
Glossary
- Housing start: A start is counted when construction begins on the foundation of a new residential building
- SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — the monthly figure scaled to an annual rate, adjusted for seasonal patterns
- Urban area: Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs) with populations of 10,000 or more
- Multi-unit starts: Includes apartments, condominiums, row houses, and semi-detached homes in urban areas
- Single-detached starts: Stand-alone single-family homes in urban areas
- Housing completions: When a residential unit is completed and ready for occupancy
- Units under construction: Residential units where construction has started but is not yet complete
- Trend: A six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), used to smooth out month-to-month volatility
Related calculators
- Mortgage Calculator — calculate monthly payments on a new home
- Mortgage Affordability Calculator — find out how much home you can afford
- Land Transfer Tax Calculator — estimate closing costs when purchasing a new build
- Mortgage Down Payment Calculator — determine your minimum down payment
Data sources
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) — monthly housing starts, completions, and under-construction data
- Statistics Canada, Table 34-10-0135-01 — quarterly housing starts, under construction, and completions data
- TD Economics — Canadian Housing Starts — analysis and commentary on monthly CMHC releases
- Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) — resale market data and MLS statistics