Toronto housing starts fell 28% in February — just 1,072 units started across the entire CMA

Toronto housing starts: February 2026

Toronto CMA housing starts have fallen to their lowest annualized pace since the pandemic. The trailing 12-month total stood at approximately 25,903 units as of February 2026, down 7% year-over-year from 27,820 a year earlier. For overall national trends, see the Canada housing starts overview.

Actual housing starts in the Toronto CMA totalled 1,072 units in February 2026, down 28% year-over-year from roughly 1,489 in February 2025. Apartments accounted for 80% of new construction, with single-detached and row house starts also subdued.

The annualized pace of 25,903 represents a dramatic pullback from the 2023 peak of 47,428 — a cumulative decline of ~45% in just two years. Full-year 2025 starts came in at just 26,087 units — a 31% drop from 2024 and the lowest annual total since at least 2019. Toronto has gone from being one of Canada’s most active construction markets to trailing both Vancouver and Montréal.

February 2026 housing starts by dwelling type

The most recent monthly data shows continued weakness across all dwelling types:

February is typically a slower month due to winter weather, but the 28% year-over-year decline signals underlying weakness beyond seasonal patterns. At the average Jan–Feb pace (1,692/month × 12 = ~20,300 annualized), Toronto is tracking well below even 2025’s 26,087.

Units under construction

As of February 2026, there were 89,127 residential units under construction in the Toronto CMA — down 9.8% from 98,767 in February 2025 and well below the peak of over 109,000 in mid-2023.

The pipeline has been shrinking since late 2023 as completions outpace new starts. With 78,862 apartment units still under construction but only ~19,000 new apartment starts in 2025, the pipeline will continue to thin.

What this means for future supply: The current pipeline of 89,127 units will translate into completions over the next 1–3 years. However, because new starts have dropped sharply, there is already a gap forming in the 2027–2028 completion horizon. This classic construction cycle lag means today’s weak starts will create a supply shortfall several years from now.

What types of homes are being built in Toronto?

Toronto’s housing construction is overwhelmingly dominated by apartments and condominiums, reflecting the economic realities of building in Canada’s most expensive land market.

2025 housing starts by dwelling type

Key observations:

• Apartment starts fell 33% from 28,162 in 2024 to 18,986 in 2025 — continuing the dramatic decline from 2023’s peak of 37,519
• Single-detached starts dropped 31% from 4,723 to 3,257, reversing the stability seen in 2024 as even suburban greenfield activity weakened
• Row houses declined 18% from 4,532 to 3,716 — the most resilient category, now the second-largest share at 14.2%
• Semi-detached starts collapsed 57% to just 128 units — this housing type has all but disappeared from Toronto’s construction pipeline

Toronto housing starts: historical trend (2020–2025)

The following table shows annual housing starts in the Toronto CMA from 2020 through 2025, based on CMHC’s Starts and Completions Survey data.

The trend is stark: Toronto construction activity surged from 2020 to a 2023 peak of 47,428 starts, then reversed sharply. The 31% year-over-year decline in 2025 was the steepest annual drop in the data, bringing starts to their lowest level in at least six years. From peak to 2025, Toronto lost 45% of its construction activity.

Several factors drove the 2023 peak:

• Large condo projects that had been pre-sold during the 2021–2022 buying frenzy began construction
• Purpose-built rental projects launched to take advantage of federal GST exemptions
• GTA suburban development maintained momentum from pandemic-era demand for larger homes

By 2024, all three tailwinds had faded or reversed.

Toronto vs. other major cities

Toronto has lost its traditional position as Canada’s construction leader. As of February 2026, the city ranked third among major CMAs by annualized housing starts:

Toronto accounts for approximately 39% of Ontario’s total housing starts (25,903 of 67,274), meaning the province’s overall construction trajectory is heavily dependent on Toronto’s recovery. At the same time, Calgary (24,941) has nearly caught Toronto on an absolute basis — a historically unusual situation given Toronto’s much larger population.

On a per-capita basis, Toronto’s performance is even weaker. The Toronto CMA has a population of roughly 6.5 million, yielding approximately 4.0 starts per 1,000 residents. By comparison, Calgary (population ~1.7 million) is running at roughly 14.7 starts per 1,000 residents — more than three times Toronto’s rate.

Housing completions

During 2025, 36,063 residential units were completed in the Toronto CMA — still well above the 26,087 starts that year, meaning the under-construction pipeline continued to shrink rapidly.

The fact that completions (36,063) significantly exceeded starts (26,087) in 2025 tells us the active construction pipeline is shrinking rapidly. Fewer new units will be delivered in 2027–2029 than in prior years, setting up a future supply gap.

Why are Toronto housing starts declining?

Several interconnected factors are driving the decline in Toronto housing starts:

Weak pre-construction condo market

The single biggest factor is the collapse in pre-construction condo sales. Developers typically need to pre-sell 60–70% of a condo building before securing construction financing. With buyers cautious about falling resale prices, high carrying costs, and uncertain rent yields, pre-sales have dropped to multi-year lows.

High construction costs

Material costs (lumber, concrete, steel), labour shortages, and municipal development charges have all increased significantly. CMHC estimates that tariffs on building materials could add $30,000–$50,000 to new construction costs, making marginal projects unviable.

Rising investor caution

During the 2021–2022 boom, investors (often purchasing pre-construction condos) accounted for a significant share of Toronto condo purchases. Many of these investors are now underwater on carry costs as rents have softened and interest rates remain elevated, discouraging new speculative purchases.

Population dynamics

Ontario has experienced net interprovincial population outflows to Alberta and other more affordable provinces, partly offsetting the demand from international immigration. Combined with reduced federal immigration targets, population-driven demand growth has slowed.

Large unsold inventory

Several GTA condo projects that recently completed are sitting with significant unsold inventory, discouraging developers from launching competing new projects nearby. The condo resale market has over 5 months of supply, firmly in buyer’s-market territory.

2026 outlook

CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist has warned that “heightened levels of business uncertainty and construction costs” are expected to weigh on housing starts in the near-to-medium term. For the Toronto CMA specifically:

Headwinds:

• Weak pre-construction sales with no near-term catalyst for recovery
• Potential trade tariffs adding $30,000–$50,000 per unit to construction costs
• Soft rental market reducing incentive for purpose-built rental construction
• Continued population outflows from Ontario to cheaper provinces
• Buyer psychology — hesitancy to purchase condos that may decline further in value

Tailwinds:

• Government incentives including federal GST removal on new rental construction
• Structural housing deficit of hundreds of thousands of units in the GTA
• Some pent-up demand from delayed family formations
• Potential rate cuts providing modest relief to borrowing costs

TD Economics has noted that Ontario starts remain “at a low level” (63,700 annualized) with “weak pre-sales activity in key markets like the GTA.” The pace is expected to continue easing through at least mid-2026 barring a significant improvement in the pre-construction condo market.

Glossary

• Toronto CMA: The Toronto Census Metropolitan Area includes the City of Toronto plus surrounding municipalities including Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Pickering, and other municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area
• Housing start: A start is counted when construction begins on the foundation of a new residential building
• Annualized rate: The trailing 12-month total, used to smooth seasonal variation and provide a consistent trend measure
• SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — the monthly figure scaled to an annual rate, adjusted for seasonal patterns
• Dwelling types: Single-detached (stand-alone homes), semi-detached (paired homes sharing a wall), row houses (townhomes), and apartments (condo and rental high/mid/low-rise buildings)
• Units under construction: Residential units where construction has started but is not yet complete
• Pre-construction sales: The sale of condo units before construction begins; developers typically need 60–70% pre-sold to secure financing

Related pages

• Canada Housing Starts — national housing starts data, provincial breakdown, and SAAR trends
• Mortgage Calculator — calculate monthly payments on a new Toronto home
• Mortgage Affordability Calculator — how much home can you afford in the GTA?
• Land Transfer Tax Calculator — estimate Toronto’s double land transfer tax
• Mortgage Down Payment Calculator — determine your minimum down payment
• Property Tax Calculator — estimate Toronto property taxes on a new build

Data sources

• Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) — housing starts, completions, and under-construction data; Starts and Completions Survey
• CMHC Housing Market Information Portal — Toronto CMA housing data tables
• Statistics Canada, Table 34-10-0158-01 — housing starts by type of dwelling and CMA
• TD Economics — Canadian Housing Starts — analysis and commentary on monthly CMHC releases