Ontario’s housing market saw the steepest provincial price decline in Canada in January 2026, with the average home price falling to $778,102 — down 6.4% year-over-year. A historic winter storm impacted January sales activity, which dropped 15.6% from a year ago to 7,737 transactions. With 6.0 months of supply and an SNLR of just 32%, buyer’s market conditions prevail across most of the province.
Key statistics (January 2026)
| Metric | Value | Month-over-Month | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Home Price | $778,102 | -2.8% | -6.4% |
| Benchmark Price | $745,800 | -0.5% | -7.0% |
| Total Sales | 7,737 | -12.1% | -15.6% |
| New Listings | 24,111 | N/A | N/A |
| Months of Supply | 6.0 | N/A | N/A |
| Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio | 32% | N/A | N/A |
| Market Condition | Buyer’s Market | N/A | N/A |
Average home prices by city
| City / Area | Average Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| GTA (TRREB) | $973,289 | -6.5% |
| City of Toronto | $948,698 | -3.7% |
| Mississauga | $943,607 | -9.9% |
| Brampton | $882,710 | -10.4% |
| Hamilton | $734,639 | -3.0% |
| KW Area | $716,911 | -6.1% |
| Ottawa | $641,436 | -4.3% |
| London | $624,550 | -3.6% |
Regional breakdown
| Region | Average Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Central Ontario | $987,922 | -6.0% |
| Southern Ontario | $713,604 | -6.3% |
| Northeastern Ontario | $693,284 | -5.9% |
| Eastern Ontario | $600,594 | -1.9% |
| Western Ontario | $562,033 | -4.8% |
| Northern Ontario | $364,509 | +0.9% |
Market conditions
Ontario is in a buyer’s market as of January 2026. The 6.0 months of supply exceeds the balanced range of 4–6 months, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio of 32% is firmly below the 40% threshold that typically signals balanced conditions. Buyers across most of the province can take their time, negotiate on price, and often include conditions in their offers.
The benchmark price of $745,800 is down 7.0% year-over-year — an even steeper decline than the average price — indicating broad-based price erosion across the typical home segment. January’s sales decline was partly exacerbated by a historic winter storm, but the underlying trend of weak demand has persisted for several months.
Regional analysis
The Greater Toronto Area remains Ontario’s most expensive market, but the GTA average has fallen below $1 million for the first time since 2021 at $973,289. Brampton and Mississauga have been hit hardest among GTA suburbs, with declines of 10.4% and 9.9% respectively. These markets saw some of the most aggressive gains during the pandemic era and are now experiencing a sharper correction.
Central Ontario ($987,922) and Southern Ontario ($713,604) are both down more than 6% year-over-year. Eastern Ontario has been more resilient with just a 1.9% decline. Ottawa, as the region’s major centre, posted a 4.3% drop to $641,436.
Northern Ontario is the only region with positive year-over-year price growth at +0.9%, though sales volumes remain modest. This region’s relative affordability at $364,509 continues to attract buyers, particularly remote workers who moved there during the pandemic and have stayed.
Key trends
- Steepest provincial decline — Ontario posted the largest year-over-year average price decline among all provinces at -6.4%, with the benchmark down 7.0%.
- GTA below $1 million — The Greater Toronto Area average has fallen below $1 million for the first time since 2021, signalling a significant shift in Canada’s largest market.
- Brampton and Mississauga hardest hit — Suburban GTA markets that surged during the pandemic are now correcting sharply, with declines exceeding 10%.
- Northern Ontario defying the trend — Northern Ontario is the lone region with positive price growth, supported by affordability and lifestyle-driven demand.
- Winter storm compounded weakness — A historic January storm reduced sales activity beyond the already-weak underlying trend.
Housing affordability
At an average price of $778,102, Ontario homes require a household income of roughly $165,000 with a 20% down payment — above the provincial median. In the GTA, the income threshold is even higher at approximately $205,000 for the average home.
More affordable options exist in Northern Ontario ($364,509), where the income required drops to approximately $90,000, and in Western Ontario ($562,033) and Eastern Ontario ($600,594), where roughly $130,000–$140,000 is needed.
Use our mortgage affordability calculator to see how much you can afford, or try the income to afford home calculator to find the salary needed at Ontario price levels.
Useful calculators
- Mortgage Calculator
- Mortgage Affordability Calculator
- Income to Afford Home Calculator
- Land Transfer Tax Calculator
- Closing Costs Calculator
- Mortgage Rates
- First-Time Home Buyer Guide
Ontario city housing reports
- Toronto Housing Market — GTA prices, sales, and market conditions
- Hamilton Housing Market — Golden Horseshoe market data
- Ottawa Housing Market — Capital city housing trends
- Waterloo Region Housing Market — KW tech hub market data
- London Housing Market — Southwestern Ontario housing trends
- Canada Housing Market Overview — National trends and provincial comparisons
Data Sources
The housing market data in this report is sourced from: